All Star Weekend and the Second Half

This was by far the most uneventful, disappointing All-Star Weekend I have ever seen, punctuated by a piss poor Dunk Contest. Terrence Ross won simply because he could dunk- on the first try (sometimes) which can't be said for the other contestants. Who in hell decided each player should get 90 seconds to complete 1 dunk? I think a present day Jordan competing at age 50 would have been more interesting than than this collection of nobodies. This contest needs a drastic change or they may be better off scrapping the whole thing. How did throwing a bounce pass through a hoop and dribbling around cones become more watchable than high flying dunks?

The one bright spot was Kyrie Irving. Dan Gilbert probably got his first boner since LeBron (who was extremely disappointing last night) left town. This kid is a bonafide stud and after his rising stars, three point shootout, and ASG performance Cleveland should be excited for his continued growth.

Now for my second half predictions:

1. LBJ will not win MVP- not sure if Durant or Paul takes it home but LeBron will not.

2. Kevin Durant will win most improved player. He can't not win this.

3. The NBA champions will reign from the western conference. Thunder, Spurs, or even the Clippers are in play here and the Heat don't have the depth any of these teams do.

4. The Lakers will make the playoffs and Dwight Howard will resign in the off season.

5. Josh Smith will get traded in this next week and as a result the Hawks will miss the playoffs.

6. The Celtics will be a 6 seed or better and win their first round playoff series. It's the second half. They'll play better.

7. The Pacers will be the 2 seed in the East. They play great defense and the Knicks don't.

8. There will be at least one more major injury ( aka ACL tear) to a premier player in the league that will have a direct effect on that player's team's results in the post season. I don't know why but this is becoming a bigger and bigger problem.

9. Stephen Curry will miss more time with an ankle injury, BUT lead the Warriors to a first round playoff win.

10. Whoever wins the lottery will be lucky to have Ben McLemore on there team. And hat same team would be stupid to pass on him.

Umass schedule check

Wins: 
Miami(FL)(11-0 in conference) 
East Carolina 
Ohio (9-1 in conference) 
Tennessee 
Providence 


Losses: 
Northeastern 
Miami(OH) 
Eastern Michigan 
Northern Illinois 

nice to have the good teams keep winning, but the bad teams keep losing..... 

providence and tennessee seem to be the wildcards in our OOC as potential quality opponents

Umass out of conference schedule: 2/8/13- 2/9/13

Wins:
#8 Miami(FL) ( 10-0 in conference)
Ohio( 8-1 in conference)
Elon(9-3 in conference)
Northeastern(11-1 in conference)
Harvard(5-0 in conference)

Losses:
Siena
Miami(OH)
Northern Illinois
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan

Handicapping the A-10

1. This is my pic of the week

I would be really surprised if St Louis doesn't cover this game, although the Spiders have played great at home recently, I think that streak comes to an end tomorrow. 

I watched both the St Louis vs Umass(big Umass fan) and Richmond vs Umass games ... and I can tell you Jordaire Jett is a one of the best , if not the best perimeter defender in the A-10. Richmonds offense is based around shooting 3 pointers and that plays into one of St Louis's greatest strengths... 


Darien Brothers is a good player for the A-10 but STL has a NBA potential defender that will most likely matchup with him. crazier things have happened but I would be surprised if the Billikens don't cover

2. My gut tells me this game is gonna be closer than I think, but I'm taking X to cover 7.5 over Duquesne.


the Dukes, to put this nicely, have been pathetic this year... pathetic...

Although Xavier has been wildly inconsistent this year, my brain tells me they should come out firing and win this game easily

The talent level, experience and confidence are all on the side of X and they are still in the hunt for post-season action
3. even though 18 is a big line... I'm still taking La salle at home to take care of business against Fordham..

This game means a lot more to La Salle and they are really tough to keep up with. 

This game will be very dependent on how Fordham defends the perimeter and how La Salle shoots from the perimeter

your going to be able to tell what type of game this is going to be within the first 5 minutes
4. Next up, I'm taking URI at home against St. Bonnaventure


URI is coming off an 81-53 drubbing @ Umass on wednesday but that isn't indicative of how they have played this season.

Their record may be horrible but they have played most teams very close and even pulling off an insane win @ St louis (17-5 overall, 6-2 in A-10)

expect a close game either way, but I would give the edge to the Rams.
5. I'm taking Temple(+3.5) over Dayton in Ohio.

more of a feeling than anything else but from watching a little bit of both teams over the years, I would say Temple is the better coached and more talented team. 

Wyatt is a monster and I'm not sure Dayton has anyone to stop him.


6. taking Umass to cover -3 over St Joseph at the Mullins center.

I live in mass and their is a driving ban in place until further notice... 
home court advantage to be not as much of a factor, but I think Umass is simply a better team overall.

They are starting to pull it together the later in the year it gets and remember, this is a team that was 
in the final four of the NIT last year, they have an older bunch of guys and really want to make a run this year

7. and the last game I'm taking Butler to cover against GW(home)


You would probably be confused by this line if you simply looked at the records and standings, but GW has been streaking through A-10 play with wins over @Umass and home against Charlotte.


That being said, and although I do like GW to play well for the rest of the year, I don't see them sticking with this technically sound butler team.

Umass Basketball: Out of Conference Schedule update

Wins: 
Harvard (2x) ( 4-0 in con) 
Siena 
Miami (8-0 in con) 
Northeastern (9-1 in con) 
Miami(OH) 
Elon(8-2 in con) 
East Carolina 

Losses: 
Tennessee 
NC State 
Ohio 
Northern Illinois 
Eastern Michigan 


overall I would say everything evened itself out... still have Providence playing today... well see what happens

Big Impact: Jose Calderon

Jose Calderon may seem like an insignificant piece of the Rudy Gay trade, but I'm here to tell you hes not. As much as the Toronto Raptors have been tough to watch the past few years, they have always had a couple of interesting players I keep my eye on(most notably Ed Davis and DeMar DeRozan ).  Most games would consist of horrible rebounding, forced off balance shots and easy layups for the opposition, there was one bright spot,  Calderon . Always in control and efficient , he seemingly was the driving force in keeping the Raptors close through the first half or sometimes the 3rd Quarter. A great outside shooter with even better vision and passing ability, Jose was the unsung hero of a miserable team and was mostly cast off as part of the problem by people that only check box scores and look at the standings.

Another team I had taken interest in(yes, I do waste a lot of time watching pointless games) was the Detroit Pistons. They also had some interesting young pieces and I found myself rooting for them this season. The feeling I got as Andre Drummond's ability slowly developed and came into focus was that they have the front court of a 7 or 8 seed eastern conference team, but the selfish, schizophrenic  backcourt that will keep them in the lottery. Nothing personal against Brandon Knight, I love his natural skill, but I think he needs some more time to develop and was cast into far more responsibility than he could handle.  Both he and Stucky have more bad shooting nights than good and don't have the control over the team that a PG of a playoff team would. I left it at that and stopped watching them, I paid attention to Drummond's quietly exciting rookie season off the bench  through the box scores and was left wondering what the Pistons were gonna do with their top 15 pick next year.

Then, it happened... the Pistons traded for the perfect piece. After I was done patting myself on the back for diagnosing the Pistons problem and being on the same page as them, I became excited.  If they aren't to proud and allow Jose to shift into the starting lineup, they can make a playoff run. Losing Prince will certainly hurt, but with Monroe and the budding star Drummond down low, they have a shot to grab the 8 seed.

Fun Fact Of The Day

Kobe Bryant is currently shooting 46.9% from the field this year on 964 attempts. This includes 51.4% from 2pt range. Russell Westbrook has taken the 2nd most shots in the league, 851 (113 less than Kobe) and is shooting 41.4% from the field and 43.7% from 2pt land.

Wow.

It is worth noting that those numbers have declined each month of the season so far....

My Guy To Watch: Victor Oladipo

In Indiana's resurgence to the top of the college basketball world, Cody Zeller has been the team's focal point and consensus All-American. However, G/F Victor Oladipo has been the heart and soul of the team all year long. At 6'5" 215 lbs, he projects as a shooting guard in the NBA, but has power and quickness to matchup with players both bigger and smaller than him.

He is the second leading scorer on the nation's second most potent offense scoring 13.9 per game on 66.0% shooting. No that's not a typo. He is currently 6th in the nation in shooting percentage but first amongst non-forwards. His ability to finish at the rim and accuracy from long range (54.8% from 3pt range) make him very difficult to guard.

However his most valuable ability when NBA teams look at him is his perimeter defense. While currently holding the 13th most steals per game , Oladipo's ability to lock down an opponent's top perimeter player will is extremely underrated. He should be considered a favorite for the nation's all-defensive team.

While offense doesn't always translate from college to the NBA (ie. Adam Morrison) defense does. Countless teams are looking for help defensively on the perimeter with the emergence of so many young and talented point guards in the league in the past few years. Oladipo has a little bit of Dwayne Wade in his game combined with the defensive instincts of a Tony Allen- type player.

Overall I see him projecting as a mid-first round pick with Aaron Afflalo to Brandon Roy (pre-injury) potential.

Umass Basketball: opponents this weekend

Wins: 

Harvard(2-0 in conference) 
Eastern Michigan 
Tennessee 
Elon(6-2 in conference) 
Ohio(6-0 in conference) 
Northeastern(8-0 in conference) Leading by 13 with 3 minutes to go*** 
Miami(6-0 in conference) 
Siena 

Losses: 

Providence 
Northern Illinois 
Miami(oh) 

The Keys To Winning

Having been watching basketball for as long as I can remember now, I've began to notice patterns in games; momentum swings, subtle scheme changes, and psychological switches.

Since I've began really looking at stats it seems to me there are 3 categories that carry more weight in the outcome of a game. When looking at the box score of a game, the winning teams almost always outperform their opponent in the following categories.

1. Rebounding
2. Free throws
3. Turnovers

Other categories such as FG%, assists, points in the paint, etc are able to be overcame by teams who take care of the ball, take advantage of there freebies, and hit the boards- in my estimation.

So the next time you look at a check who had more rebounds, less turnovers, and converted more efficiently at the free throw line and you will, almost always, be looking at the winning team.

UMASS schedule check

Alright, so since I'm a nerd and have nothing productive to do tonight, I figured I'd go through the box scores and check out how the Minutemen's out of conference schedule is holding up

Tonight's games:

Wins-

Miami(13-3)
Northeastern(10-7)
East Carolina(11-5) over formerly 12-3 Houston
Miami(OH)
Ohio


Losses-

NC State
Northern Illinois
Providence


good night overall... looks like Ohio is gonna run away with the MAC

Northeastern stays unbeaten in conference, now 5-0... probably no chance at an at large bid but still good for us

Old School Comparisons: Paul/Griffin = Payton/Kemp?

So, as a guy who loves evaluating talent I'm always trying to compare and contrast situations, ability, ceiling, work ethic ,etc to come up a decent idea of what future results of player's will look like.

This one hit me last night...  everything isn't perfectly linear, but these two combos have more in common than they are different...

similarities:
- both guards are/were the best at their position
- both forwards are up and coming youngsters who players fear getting posterized by(lets hope Griffin turns out better than Kemp did)
- both on the west coast
- both teams are at their best in one of the primes of the NBA, and unfortunately that means their are dominant teams(Thunder/Heat)(Bulls/Rockets) that have/probably will keep them from winning championships
-Both Guards are tremendous leaders and are known for their on court trash talk


the only big difference I could think of was Paul is a better shooter than Payton, but Payton was better on D... so I claim sematics!

The Bradley Affect

After returning from a lackluster west coast trip to close out 2012, the Boston Celtics looked sluggish, uninspired, and just plain uninterested coming into the new year. There defense was lazy, offense was stagnant and they had none of the edge they've come to be loved/hated for. With the return of Avery Bradley to the active roster, my Celtics have once again found their edge.

In the six games since his return, they have yet to allow 100 points, allowing less than 86 points a game in 2013. In these six games, they have won 5 and have played 5 projected playoff teams including a huge win at Madison Square Garden against the high-octane Knicks.

Bradley's return has returned the rotation to full strength for the first time all season, meaning the second unit gains another weapon in Jason Terry.

This in return gives the bench a ball handler who can take pressure off of Courtney Lee who can now focus on what he does best which is shoot and defend. It gives Jeff Green somebody else who can create his own shot and space the floor allowing him to be more aggressive and assertive on offense. Pair that with a increasingly dominant Jared Sullinger, who is looking more and more confident with every minute he plays and you have what looks to be a very deep, skilled bench unit.

Bradley's presence has also paid great dividends to the starting unit. His ability to defend ball handlers has allowed Rondo the opportunity to guard the oppositions secondary perimeter player- a break he has not been able to take all year. This allows him to focus more energy on running the offense and the break, increasing the pace of the game- an are where he excels. Bradley's defensive intensity takes pressure off of Garnett since be keeps his man from getting to the middle so well which translates to better interior rotations between KG, Bass, and even Pierce.

Offensively, Bradley has greatly improved his ability to knock down shots- which has greatly improved spacing while he is on the floor when compared to last year. This has translated to more open shots for all the other starters- Rondo, Pierce, Bass, and Garnett. As an added bonus, his ability to create turnovers on defense has lead to more possessions especially in transition for an offense that shoots a very high percentage from the field without him.

Looking forward the celtics have a relatively easy second half of the season, with a west coast trip coming at the end of February. With a roster improving and getting deeper and healthier, look for Boston to surge in the second half of the year (like last season) and make a deep playoff run (like last season). Lets just all hope David Stern hasn't decided the champion before the games are played (like last season). Just kidding (sorta).


-JPD

My Umass Fandom

Hey guys, I wanted to get this thing  started with a bang, so I decided to go back and find an article that gives a general overview of how I am about sports. this was a post I made on the Umasshoops.com message board almost 10 months ago when I had made a few realizations about being a fan.  Now that things are getting kicked off I will be writing game reviews of every Umass game from here on out. Also, me and JP will be giving you some of the best info you can find on the web about basketball. 

should be a lot of fun and I'm ready to get things kicked off!

I am so utterly shocked guys. I realize starting a new thread would sometimes be considered self righteous or egotistical, but I have a lot to write and it doesn't fit any other thread. 

I have followed Umass basketball since the late 90s(age 8 ). I became a basketball fan and Umass basketball fan right after all the Marcus Camby/Jon Calipari shenanigans, I started in the Monty Mack/Bruiser Flint Era. I followed close but I didn't really get into it till the Lappas era. The big Deli, Rashaun Freemaan and the beginnings of Stephane Lasme.I remeber checking the newspapaer and being excited if they got close to the top 100 My first exciting moment when Umass Upset Uconn... that was absolutely incredible. Rashaun Freeman jumping on the scoreboard before the game was over I will never forget. I think Lappas got the short end of the stick, he was building the team in the right direction when he got fired(Lasme, Maxwell, Freeman, Anderson) 

The Ford years were even better and brought life to Umass basketball that I had never seen before. The flu game where they lost against saint Louis was upsetting , but a 24-9 record was something I had never seen before. The next year was even better, The both syracuse wins are top 10 moments for me. The best game though, was the Houston game. Mullins was filled and it was a close game we came out on top. Gary Forbes was an absolute stud and we were on our way. Then Ford left...darn, I was pretty much in love with the guy and I suppose I had unrealistically high expectations for the next coach. 

I remember the first year Kellogg was coach and being frustrated with him.They stood around on offense, played horrible defense and didn't seem to play with the same heart as they did with coach Ford. I watched promising guys like Chris Lowe and David Gibbs go by the wayside as players because of what I thought was DK. 

I remember following Terrell Vinson's recruitment and literally jumping up from my chair in class when I came on to Umasshoops that morning to see he committed, looking at the rivals page I was gitty with excitement and although I was extremely skeptical of DK at the time, I was very impressed with his first recruiting class(Put, Vinson, Riley, Samp, Farrell). It made everything I was frustrated about alright and I was still excited for the upcoming year with all the potential we were going to have. 

I then went and sat through the entire next season, going to games where less than 3k people showed up, just looking for signs of hope, to bring me back to the ford days. I saw impressive recruits, in a horrible offense and system... I was outraged and wanted Kellogg out. I wanted him out bad, we were so talented and lost games we shouldn't have on a consistent basis. I saw Chris Lowe's college career go up in flames, which was extremely upsetting because we saw what he could do early on. I saw a bunch of poorly conditioned, not fundamentally sound, unfinished products. Losses to teams like Jacksonville state and Toledo stung quite a bit and I started to question if things were only getting worse rather than better. I also saw a completely demoralized David Gibbs. The kid had clearly gotten all the confidence he had knocked out of him and he played like it. I still hold out that if Ford stayed, Gibbs would have been a star for us. We had one great win, Memphis, but that only seemed to frustrate me more as we could be such a great team and have such great potential, but not be able to prove it at all. It was confirmed to me that the coach was the issue. Rickey Harris was a good player, but the offense where we stand around for 25 seconds, hand it to him and have him shoot an off balance three was miserable to watch. Still, I gave Kellogg a mulligan, 'his guys' were all freshman at that point, so I pessimistically let it go. 

This is when I guess I gave up. The offense had not changed, I saw on multiple occasions Kellogg looking to Vance walberg for advice in timeouts and sometimes Walberg taking control in timeouts altogether. I was through with this regime... get Kellogg out and start over was where I was at. I was so fed up with watching this frustrating brand of basketball I stopped going to the games and just started listening to them on the radio. We started out 7-0 (not beating anyone) , got my hopes slightly back up and then volleyball spiked them right back down to where I had been finishing the year 8-15, 7-9 in conference and a first round loss to Dayton in the A-10 tourney. We lost Traynam, who showed solid potential, half way through the semester and Anthony Gurly, seemingly the only guy on the roster who could consistently score. gross. 


I went into this year as, ok, 3 things can happen. 

1.Were horrible, DK gets fired, we find a new coach, a new direction, and start over ... I would be happy 

2.were mediocre (14-18 wins), DK stays, we continue to be mediocre and I spend the rest of my Umass fandom as a mediocre fan rooting on a mediocre team for the rest of my mediocre life. ... I would be mediocre and miserable 

3. We progress quite a bit, DK improves his in game coaching, the offense improves, we win 18-20 games and compete in the A-10 tourney... I'm ecstatic and I'm willing to live with Derek Kellogg the below average coach because he can overcome it with his impressive recruiting. 

and then Chaz Williams happened......... 

I am so glad I went to the first game at the cage. This team was so different and I didn't know why at the time, but the energy of this team had changed so much I was confused. it wasn't the opponent or the score of the game. The feeling of the team. 

Starting out 4-0 I began to be cautiously excited, but ready at all times for a smack into reality. I thought the FSU game was the beginning of that. after the 20 point loss I braced myself for a big letdown and potentially mediocre season. losing 3 out of 5 and getting beat handily by the only 'good' teams we played so far ... After that they strung together quite a few wins in a row, including a win over davidson... I didn't trust it whatsoever. I remember saying"yea, but were screwed when we get to A-10 play, no point in getting excited now, maybe they blow it and kellogg still gets fired." 

after the loss of Cady lalanne and Sampson Carter" o no inside prescense were screwed, season is over" 

after lasalle loss ..."o season is over" 

after Duquesne loss " o were screwed, first of many bad losses" 

At this point though we were 16-5 and still had an outside shot at the tourney... obviously, just like all of you guys, I was getting excited and looking ahead on how we needed to finish the year 

after Rhode Island " of course, setting me up for failure yet again, why do I lie to myself" 

and then... I started thinking at the end of the regular season . I said I would have been happy with 18 wins this year and I was miserable with 20. We had won 20 games , were improving , get ready for next year. 

Then the A-10 tourney and NIT happened. You can't overstate the heart and soul they have played with and the never say die attitude has made for some of the most incredible wins I've seen as a Umass fan. I've seen great improvement from Kellogg making halftime adjustments and in game decision making, I'm blown away by how much he has improved and how he kept confidence in himself even when things were bad(empty stands, bad offense, bad conditioning, players transferring and leaving).

As much as I'm proud of Kellogg and am finally happy hes our coach, he is not the main reason why this Umass team is where it is, it's Chaz Williams. He is absolutely incredible and probably my favorite player of all-time. He brings heart and leadership that had been severely lacking on this team. He makes the entire team play harder and makes them play up to their potential. His grit and determination to win wears off on every player on this team and you can see it. 

Without Chaz do we think Javorn and Freddie so easily accept their roles comming off the bench? Do we see the overall difference in pace and control? do we make comebacks in any of these games without knowing Chaz is the guy willing to lead us and take the big shot? The only guy I've seen in college basketball the past few years that I can compare him to is Tu Holloway, probably my favorite college basketball player(out of everyone, not just the A-10). They seem to have the perfect combination of leadership, confidence and skill to lead and push a team, even against superior talent. 

The one thing I am worried about is when Chaz leaves, I realize it's a while off and probably not something I should be thinking about, but is he creating the illusion of progression in the program? or are we actually improving in multiple areas. I sense DK is getting a lot of good experience from having Chaz, but I hope we can find another sure-fire leader before Chaz's days are done in western mass. 

moral of this extremely long story is, I apologize to Derek Kellogg and the team. I doubted from day 1 this year and pretty much for the past few years, sometimes making unfairly harsh comments and opinions. I did not support the team the way a fan should the past few years and I apologize for my pessimistic attitude I brought to the games and team as a whole. 
.......Alright, that felt great to get off my chest..... 


now I'm ready for the NIT semi-finals at Madison Square garden!!! lets go Umass !